Forecast of Drought Using Statistical Approach for Erode District

Drought plays a crucial role in agriculture, especially farming and has significant impact on the environment. The present study focuses forecast of drought using one hybrid artificial neural network namely Adaptive NeuroFuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). For this study, 39 years monthly precipitation value Erode district are used. Firstly, values, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) values computed at three scale since mainly depends North-East Monsoon. Secondly, with SPI mean Monsoon season, different ANFIS forecasting models constructed its precursory time period. Further, outcome anticipated model observed were collated Root Mean Square Error Absolute values. minimal RMSE was termed as best fit model.